GEORGIA’S TEST AND THE ROLE OF THE WEST

Original: GEORGIA'S TEST AND THE ROLE OF THE WEST

Published on Central Asia-Caucasus Institute Analyst (http://www.cacianalyst.org)
 

Georgia is facing yet another political challenge. In the wake of a devastating war with Russia and continued Russian occupation of Georgian territories, a broad coalition of political parties and civic organizations is demanding political changes in the country. In fact, it is becoming clear that stability cannot be maintained in Georgia without significant reform. The U.S. interests in the region dictate the need for strong support of Georgia’s independence and territorial integrity, as well as its internal political stability. That can only be achi onflict with Russia compounds Georgia’s internal problems. Georgia is a key target of Russian efforts to reduce or eliminate alternative access routes to Central Asia and Afghanistan for the US, NATO, and Western energy interests. Russian interests will be served by a weak and destabilized Georgia, as that would leave Russia as the key, and maybe sole, potential partner for Western access to Central Asia. In that case, Russia would be able to dictate its own terms of collaboration. The August war made it clear that Russia is willing to use force to protect these interests. With that war, Georgians learned that Russia will always have enough power to inflict substantial damage on their country or, in the worst-case scenario, destroy its statehood. The Western response to the events before, during, and after the war has also demonstrated that Georgia can expect limited help in case of Russian military aggression.